At US$78.40 per barrel, the current
historical high may be just a passing smoke. Although the peak of oil prices is
difficult to estimate, an oil price of US$80/barrel is just around the corner.
Amid market concerns about the impact of
the situation in the Middle East on oil supply, during Asian trading last
Friday, the price of light crude oil for August delivery on the New York
Mercantile Exchange touched $78.40, erasing the earlier record of $77.92 set in
New York. That day, the closing price was $77.03, the highest closing price in
history for crude oil futures.
At the same time, Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil prices also rose strongly. According
to the Vienna-based OPEC Secretariat's announcement on July 14, the average
price of the organization's 11 market-supervised crude oil basket rose to
US$70.38 per barrel on the 13th, an increase of US$1.72 from the previous
trading day.
With the new round of sharp rise in crude
oil prices, more market participants believe that oil prices may reach US$80
per barrel, and the possibility of rising to US$100 per barrel is also high.
Since 1/3 of the world's oil production
comes from the Middle East, the local war situation directly affects the rise
and fall of oil prices.
In addition, the Iranian nuclear issue has
not been resolved for a long time, which has also exacerbated investors'
concerns. These factors combined have driven oil prices sharply higher.
Investors are currently paying close
attention to the situation in the Middle East, the direction of the Iranian
nuclear issue, and weather changes in the crude oil mining areas of the U.S.
Gulf of Mexico. An analyst raised two possibilities for the recent oil price
trend: if the U.S. Gulf of Mexico is hit by a hurricane, international oil
prices will easily exceed $80 per barrel; but if the impasse on the Iranian
nuclear issue shows signs of easing, the price pressure on the international
crude oil market will also increase. It will ease quickly.
Barry, director of London Energy Market
Consultants, said that although Israel and Lebanon are both non-oil-producing
countries, the two countries are located in the core of the Middle East, which
produces one-third of the world's oil production, making oil trading countries
worried that the conflict will spread. Barry estimates that as long as the
United States encounters a hurricane, oil prices can break through the $80
mark. In fact, the crude oil futures contract from December to August next year
has exceeded 80 US dollars a barrel.
Venezuelan Energy Minister Ramirez also
said that international oil prices will continue to rise in the future. He said
that it was the United States' support for Israel that led to higher oil
prices. Under the aggressive foreign policy of the United States, rising oil
prices were inevitable.
OPEC has expressed concern about the rising
oil prices in the international market in recent days. On July 14, OPEC issued
a press communiqué, stating that the current supply and demand for crude oil in
the market is still balanced, and OPEC is committed to taking all measures to
stabilize oil prices at a reasonable level. To this end, the communiqué calls
on other crude oil producing and consuming countries to provide support.