Russia's Economic Strength has Recovered 70%

On February 19, a piece of news from Itar-Tass news agency attracted the attention of Western media: Commander Vysotsky of the Russian Northern Fleet announced: "After 10 years of waiting, the Northern Fleet is about to return to the Mediterranean." This is even more surprising. What is of concern is that Russia's only aircraft carrier, the "Marshal Kuznetsov", appeared on the list of ships that penetrated into the "underbelly of Europe". Western media believe that just as Russia recently used the natural gas dispute with Ukraine to show its energy strength, this operation marks the beginning of Russia's military strength to the world. Since the beginning of this year, Russia has once again become a hot spot for international media speculation. When analyzing the reasons for Russia's recent tough performance, many media have mentioned that the basis for all this is the recovery of Russia's strength. So, how much has Russia's strength recovered?

After the American Goldman Sachs Group first proposed the idea of "Russia's re-emergence" in 2003, there have been more and more Western articles assessing Russia's strength in the past two years. Dimitri Symes, director of the US "Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom", pointed out after a detailed study of Russia's developments in recent years that Russia is still "a bear" and the United States must start to treat it as a new bear when talking to Russia. A rising power, rather than “a sick and weak power that needs more understanding and patience like in the Yeltsin era.” Terumasa Nakanishi, a professor at Kyoto University in Japan, has also set a timetable for Russia's re-emergence. He believes that around 2013, Russia will make a comeback and possess strong strength.

Rise requires hard power. Usually, economic growth is the most obvious factor causing changes in comprehensive national strength. The most direct manifestation and main reason for the decline in Russia's comprehensive national strength after the disintegration of the Soviet Union is the overall economic decline. At the end of 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, and the independent Russian Federation inherited most of the wealth of the former Soviet Union. However, Russia at that time was extremely poor, with a total domestic debt of 1 trillion rubles and a foreign debt of 120 billion US dollars. In Putin's words when he came to power, "Russia's GDP dropped by almost 50% in the 1990s... This is probably the first time in the past two to three hundred years that Russia is truly in danger of becoming a second- or third-rate country in the world."

Now, in Western comments about Russia's restoration of strength, the first thing mentioned is the rapid development of the Russian economy, including the energy industry. After adjustments in recent years, the Russian economy has basically entered a stable stage of development. From 2000 to 2005, calculated at constant prices (that is, excluding factors such as inflation and currency depreciation), Russia's annual economic growth was above 4%. In 2005, Russia's GDP (gross domestic product) reached 21.67 trillion rubles, equivalent to more than 770 billion US dollars, and its per capita GDP also exceeded 5,300 US dollars.

In response to some Western media claims that Russia's economic growth is entirely dependent on rising oil prices, Russian Prime Minister Fradkov pointed out that Russia's economic structure has undergone qualitative changes. Oil only accounts for about 1/3 of the Russian economy, and the strong growth of domestic demand has become an important factor in the Russian economy's surge. An obvious sign is that the purchasing power of the Russian people is also increasing. Last year, 50 million new mobile phones were added to Russia. With a total population of just over 140 million, the total number of mobile phones in Russia now reaches 120 million. Regarding such an achievement, the Russian "Expert" magazine commented that Russia's total output level has returned to 70% of the level during the Soviet period, and it felt "relieved" for the first time in many years.

The people who feel the most real feelings about economic growth are the Russian people. According to a report by Moscow's "Business" magazine, in a survey of 144 cities in the world, Moscow's price levels were among the highest in the world. In the face of rising prices, people's mentality is generally peaceful. According to statistics from the All-Russian Public Opinion Survey Center, compared with 1998, the number of people who find it "difficult to live" has dropped from 45% to 21%, and the number of people who feel that life is "fairly good" has increased from 5% to 25%. The number of people who did so increased from 24% to 44%.

Russian media believe that if Russia’s economic strength returns to 70% of what it was during the Soviet period, then Russia’s military strength will be equivalent to 80% of what it was during the Soviet period. Although the Russian army has been greatly weakened in size compared with the original Soviet army, it is still a powerful military force in the world second only to the US military.

Since Putin came to power, Russia has continuously carried out military reforms with the goal of reviving its former great power. Especially since last year, Russia has successively sent out strong signals to revitalize its military, and its military construction has also achieved substantial development. The Russian military development strategy is returning from the overall contraction during the disintegration of the Soviet Union to strengthening overseas military presence. Russia will continue to expand its military bases in Kyrgyzstan this year and plans to build a new air force base in Belarus within this year. The Russian military is once again active on the world stage. It not only holds frequent military exercises at home and abroad, offshore and oceans, but also resumes global patrols of strategic nuclear submarines. A batch of new world-class equipment will also be released one after another and delivered to the Russian army for use. Information from Russia shows that after another 10 years of hard work, as the Russian military’s sixth-generation military theory matures, weapons such as the Topol M2 intercontinental ballistic missile, the Su-47 Golden Eagle super fighter, and the Black Panther A large number of the world's top weapons, such as main battle tanks and stealth nuclear-powered cruisers, have been put into service one after another, and the Russian army will rise again. The Los Angeles Times commented that although the United States is the only superpower in the world, Russia still has the power to destroy the United States several times. Perhaps it is precisely with this kind of military strength that Russia can win the respect of the West.

The competition in comprehensive national strength between countries in the 21st century is taking place against the background of global economic integration and knowledge economy. In this competition, the influence of "hard" factors such as resource power and military power will show a downward trend, while political power will "Soft" factors such as technology and scientific and technological capabilities will play an increasingly important role. In terms of politics, at the beginning of the disintegration, people's minds changed. But the ten years of turmoil taught the Russians a profound lesson, and they saw clearly the harm that turmoil brought to the country. The original fanaticism and illusions were shattered, and people once again longed for a stable life and for the country to restore order. From the change of people's minds to the governance of people's minds, there has been a 180-degree change in social mentality. This is the social foundation and public opinion foundation for the stabilization of the Russian political situation. After Putin came to power, he weakened or destroyed oligarchs and other forces that harmed the central government. At the same time, he basically solved the most troublesome problems in Russian society such as Chechnya and pensions, forming the "Putin phenomenon" in Russian society. Russian sociologists regard Putin as an important symbol of Russia's stability and development.

Russia's technological level is also an important factor in the recovery of its strength. After Goldman Sachs put forward the view of "Russia's re-emergence," Indian scholar Mohan pointedly pointed out that Russia has amazing technological resources. "For China and India, the best choice is to fully explore their economic potential and seize it." Russian technology, otherwise the West will find a way to defeat us." Experts from the Economic Cooperation Bureau of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs told reporters that Russia's high-tech level in software and other fields has quickly jumped to the world's advanced ranks, and many high-tech companies such as South Korea's Samsung and LG have The software is all designed by Russians. In 2004, the total output value of the Russian IT industry reached 800 billion rubles, and it grew significantly at a rate of more than 30% every year.

However, Russia's re-emergence still faces considerable uncertainties.

First, Russia's economic prospects are clouded by social factors such as the demographic crisis. The shrinking, weakening and aging of Russia's population will further restrict its economic growth. Russia's population was 150 million in 1991, and had dropped to about 144 million by the end of 2002. Even optimistic estimates put the number down to around 136 million by 2025; the UN estimate puts it at 126 million. In addition, the economic chaos of the 1990s led to a significant decline in the health status of the Russian population. There are 100 tuberculosis patients per 100,000 people in Russia. Russia is also the country with the fastest growing number of HIV infections in the world. The World Bank's conclusion on the long-term impact of AIDS on the Russian economy is: "The unchecked spread of AIDS will reduce the long-term growth rate of the Russian economy, reducing Russia's annual economic growth rate by 0.5% by 2010 and by 2020." "It will decrease by 1%." Eugene, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, and Celeste, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believe that the size of the labor force required to maintain economic growth and feed retirees from Russia, as well as the number of people who can be put into the battlefield Judging from aspects such as the size of its army, Russia's demographic crisis will affect all aspects of its domestic life and international stance.

Second, Russia is currently talking a lot about the "post-Putin era". A poll recently published by the Russian newspaper "The Independent" shows that although the Russian people are confused about the country's development direction, they still fully support President Putin. This personal dependence on Putin is in line with Russia's history and tradition, and is beneficial to Russia's stability and development at present. However, some experts believe that compared with individual strength, institutional factors should be more important indicators in determining the rise of great powers.

In addition, today is different from the past. The geopolitical environment and international situation in which Russia is located have undergone tremendous changes. Russia no longer has the favorable conditions it had during its rise several times in history. On the one hand, the above-mentioned recovery of Russia's strength is only a static comparison with that of the former Soviet Union. In fact, the United States has developed very rapidly over the past decade. Compared with then, the gap between Russia and the United States is not narrowing, but increasing. When the Soviet Union was at its most powerful, its GDP was equivalent to 60% of that of the United States; in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia's economy was equivalent to 10% of that of the United States. Although the Russian economy has continued to grow in the past six years, Russia's GDP in 2005 was only equivalent to 1/20 of that of the United States. Even based on purchasing power parity, it was only equivalent to 1/12 of that of the United States.

For the United States and other Western countries, they absolutely do not want Russia to rise again. For them, the re-emergence of such a big country across Europe and Asia will be like a nightmare. Containing and weakening Russia has become the West's unchanging policy towards Russia. This is destined to make it difficult to eliminate the strategic contradiction between Russia and the West. Dimitri Symes, director of the US "Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom", said that the United States should exert strong economic pressure to make Russia and all important countries understand that if they want to benefit from US cooperation, they must pay attention Respect U.S. interests. The United States can no longer hesitate on this matter.

However, for the rise of Russia, the opportunities outweigh the challenges after all. “Putin’s resurgence” has laid the foundation for political stability and economic recovery for Russia’s re-emergence. Experts believe that Russia has survived three times in desperate situations in history. As long as Russia is not divided, no one can underestimate such a "natural power." In any case, as for the current Russia, as a commentary in Argentina’s Clarion newspaper said: “At least the days when Russia was subordinate to the West are over. It is not the Soviet Union it once was, but it is not the same as it was in the 1990s. That’s a weak country.”