Although high international oil prices have
had a certain adverse impact on U.S. economic growth this year, the U.S.
economy still grew at a relatively strong pace in the first half of the year,
and the growth prospects for the second half of the year are still good.
According to the latest report released by
the U.S. government, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 5.6% in the
first quarter of this year, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of
2003, when it grew by 7.2%. Among them, personal consumption expenditure, the
main driver of economic growth, increased by 5.1% at an annual rate, which was
also the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2003. Since the U.S.
economy is a typical consumer economy, strong domestic demand provides impetus
for sustained economic growth.
At the same time, U.S. corporate investment
continues to grow strongly; export growth has accelerated while import growth
has slowed, which has alleviated the "drag" effect of the trade
deficit on the economy to a certain extent; the unemployment rate has also
continued to decline, and has now fallen to 4.6%, the lowest level in five
years; although the sharp rise in energy prices, especially oil prices, has put
greater pressure on rising prices, the inflation rate is still at a relatively
low level.
There are many reasons why the U.S. economy
continued to grow at a relatively strong momentum in the first half of the
year, two of which are particularly important: First, due to economic growth
and reduced unemployment, especially due to investment in the real estate
market, U.S. household income has steadily increased, thus providing Strong
personal demand provides the impetus. Second, the adjustment of energy strategy
has greatly enhanced the US economy's ability to cope with the impact of high
oil prices.
Although the U.S. economy is in good shape
in the first half of the year, the difficulties it faces cannot be ignored. If
these problems are not handled properly, it may increase the risks to U.S.
economic growth. First, inflationary pressure has increased significantly, and
the impact of rising energy prices has begun to appear. Secondly, higher
interest rates will have a negative impact on personal consumption and
corporate investment. At present, the US federal funds rate, that is, the
overnight lending rate between commercial banks, has risen to 5.25%, the
highest level since the end of January 2001. This will inevitably have a
certain impact on U.S. consumption and investment. It is particularly worth
pointing out that the increase in short-term interest rates in the United
States has led to a continued rise in long-term interest rates, and interest
rates on mortgages, which are mainly used to purchase houses, continue to rise.
A report released by the Federal Home Mortgage Corporation on the 6th of this
month showed that the 30-year mortgage interest rate in the United States has
risen to 6.79%, reaching the highest level in more than four years. The
continued rise in mortgage rates is bound to have a cooling effect on the U.S.
housing market.
According to the latest economic growth
forecast released by the White House last month, the U.S. economic growth rate
will reach 3.6% this year, and is expected to be 3.3% and 3.2% respectively
next year and the year after. Since energy prices are expected to be at a high
level, the price increase will also be higher than originally estimated. It is
expected to exceed 3% for the whole year this year, but it will not get out of
control. Therefore, the U.S. economy will be on a sustainable growth track this
year, and major problems are unlikely to occur in the short term.